The ongoing war in Ukraine has really been out of the minds
of the American people for the last few months. But things aren’t getting
better, and in fact, estimates say that 5000 people have been killed since the
fighting began. While the Obama administration has already committed $118 million in training and nonlethal equipment for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, State
Border Guard Service, and National Guard, the President has repeatedly rejected
the idea of equipping the Ukrainian army with lethal arms. But the
Russian-backed separatists seem to be winning.
A rare collaboration of eight former national security
practitioners and top thinkers on Russia has reignited discussion on the scale
of U.S. response and assistance to Ukraine, in the face of what looks like a
losing battle. A united response from respected public intellectuals coming
from the Atlantic Council, Brookings Institute, and Chicago Council on Global
Affairs, including Strobe Talbott (see previous blog post), Charles F. Wald,
Jan M. Lodal, John Herbst, and Steve Pifer is a big deal. The publication of
their piece, "Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression:What the United States and NATO Much Do," proposes arming the Ukrainian army
with lethal weapons and escalating U.S. assistance to Ukraine. Their solution
contains three main components: committing $1 billion this year to Ukraine’s
defense, providing their defense with lethal arms, and pressuring other NATO
member states to provide lethal weapons and assistance to Ukraine. They make a clear plea
to the Obama administration:
"Assisting Ukraine to deter attack and defend itself is not inconsistent with the search for a peaceful, political solution—it is essential to achieving it. Only if the Kremlin knows that the risks and costs of further military action are high will it seek to find an acceptable political solution. Russia’s actions in and against Ukraine pose the gravest threat to European security in more than 30 years. The West has the capacity to stop Russia. The question is whether it has the will."
The entire report relies on the assumption that Vladimir
Putin will back down to escalating violence. But what – besides us “trusting”
these experts – indicates with any certainty that he would back down?
Much of Putin’s domestic popularity has been a result of his
strong-armed foreign policy – securing regional authority, and resistance
against against American and Western hegemony. It seems counterintuitive that
he would capitulate under pressure. He certainly hasn’t despite the great
economic blow Russia has suffered as a result of sanctions, and he won’t to
military escalation. Like a grade-school bully, the last thing Putin wants to
look like is weak. Our belligerence would provoke him, not defeat him.
Furthermore, Putin has a much greater strategic interest in
Ukraine than we do. And he knows that. The commitment that the U.S. is prepared
to make is limited – we will not get involved in a war, and we would certainly
never send boots on the ground. Putin would be willing to escalate violence to
a level that we would realistically never match.
While I don’t claim to have the solution, the U.S. and its European allies must create a new, concerted diplomatic plan. Ukraine is a country with a complex history and diverse ethnic makeup. Forcing them in a tug of war between Western institutions such as the EU and NATO, and Russia, ignores the national history and demography and thus we are also to blame for aggravating Ukraine’s internal conflict. Russia must recognize that Ukraine has the democratic right to elect leaders and join the European Union. But we, too, must respect minority rights in Ukraine the same way we do in so many other nations. While Talbott and others are correct in making this threat to European security a foreign policy priority, the solution does not lie in provoking Putin. Our only solution is to make the bully feel like he is winning. This lies in constructing a unified Euro-Atlantic, all-hands-on-deck diplomatic effort, guided by strategy and reason. Let’s put our minds to work.
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